Kirkland Statistics

“Buyer Ready” Home Shoppers Have Edge as Brokers Report Rise in Multiple Offers

KIRKLAND, Wash. (April 5, 2012) –The housing market in the Puget Sound region is pointing toward a sustainable recovery, according to several brokers who commented on the March activity report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

MLS Members reported 9,126 pending sales during March, a year-over-year increase of nearly 21 percent. That total surpassed the previous month by 1,503 transactions (up 19.7 percent). Coupled with shrinking inventory, attractive financing, and rising consumer confidence, the market is becoming more balanced, and even being described by some brokers as “frenzied.” Other brokers commented on the “remarkable opportunities for investing in the residential rental market.”

Brokers added 8,170 new listings last month — nearly 1,000 fewer than the number of pending sales, and about 1,100 fewer new listings than the same month a year ago.  With those additions, the number of active listings at month end totaled 24,883 across the 21 counties in the Northwest MLS service area.  Compared to a year ago, inventory is down 25.6 percent.

“Buyers are screaming for more inventory and they’re being more aggressive with presenting offers on homes,” reported MLS director George Moorhead, branch manager at Bentley Properties in Bothell.  Home shoppers perceive the bottom is nearing, he noted, “and both buyers and sellers want to catch the historically low interest rates.” Area-wide, he said bank-owned home sales are increasing. “The lagging inventory is actually helping prices stabilize, which we hope will have a positive impact on the real estate market as the year progresses,” he added.

“Close to the job centers, 45 percent of new listings are selling within a single month. We are seeing a frenzied market in the Puget Sound region, especially in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, with an increase in sales activity in the high end,” remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “Because of the shortage of homes for sale, combined with the sales surge being driven by job growth and historically low interest rates, if you are not ‘buyer ready’ you may not get a house in today’s market,” he added.

Northwest MLS brokers reported 5,044 closed sales last month, improving on the year-ago total by nearly 10 percent. The overall median price on last month’s completed transactions was $225,000, which reflects a decrease of 7.4 percent from the year-ago median sales price of $242,925.

Noting stabilizing prices are “forcing buyers to make offers that reflect a more balanced market,” Northwest MLS director Darin Stenvers said house-hunters have taken note of rising rents, fewer choices and increasing fuel costs. The trends are not universal, he acknowledged, but certainly reflect a higher buying confidence level and even a small uptick in new construction.  “I’m seeing new home starts in areas that had been at a standstill for years,” reported Stenvers, the office managing broker at John L. Scott in Bellingham.

Multiple offers are occurring with regularity in some neighborhoods according to Northwest MLS directors. “The housing market in Seattle’s close-in neighborhoods began to show signs of buyer panic in February but reached a breaking point in March,” reported Mike Skahen, owner and designated broker of Lake & Co. Real Estate in Seattle. “I haven’t seen buyers this motivated since 2006 and in my opinion, prices on good houses have recovered at least 10 percent of their value since the low point a year ago,” he added.

Skahen said a small Ballard home listed for around $370,000 recently drew five offers and sold for considerably more than the list price. “It’s becoming common for multiple offers on most houses, especially those priced under $400,000 where the selection is very limited,” he observed.

“Now that buyers can track new listings online they are aware of how quickly most listings are selling and fear they’ve missed catching the bottom of the market. They realize continuing to wait would be a mistake,” Skahen commented.

Diedre Haines, another Northwest MLS director, said pending sales in Snohomish County, which jumped 21 percent,  would have been “considerably greater were it not for the buyer competition due to the magnitude of multiple offer situations.”  She said they are seeing the return of price escalator forms, pre- inspections, set dates for sellers to review offers and properties selling above list price,” according to Haines, the regional managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood. “Prices are not increasing dramatically but those properties that are listed and priced correctly, especially in the $300,000 and below range, are selling within days of coming on market,” she noted.

Haines also said they are seeing multiple offer situations in the higher priced market “but not as many over list price sales.”  She reported the demand ratio in Snohomish County, based on a recent analysis, “is at the highest levels we have experienced since 2006.”  She also noted the report showed there are two buyers for every current home on market in Snohomish County.

A similar scenario exists in Kitsap County. “Inventory is down by 11 percent, buyers making offers are up almost 34 percent, multiple offer situations are on the rise, and more people are coming by our open houses,” reported Frank Wilson, branch managing director at John L. Scott’s office in Poulsbo. “While the median price in Kitsap is down by 5 percent it is only a matter of time before prices stabilize,” he believes.

The optimism comes with a cautionary note. “It is still extremely important for sellers to price their property correctly,” Haines emphasized. Even with high demand, homes that are priced above comparable properties are not receiving offers, she explained, adding, “We are seeing very positive signs of a continuing recovery but buyers are well educated regarding values and pricing. Sellers should not expect huge increases in values and need to price their properties accordingly and realistically.”

The uptick in activity is attracting not only first-time and move-up buyers, but also investors, according to industry experts.

“Rental demand is surging, interest rates are at historic lows, and recent economic activity has erased nearly a decade of appreciation,” reported MLS director OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate.. He believes the combination of these three factors has created “remarkable opportunities for investing in the residential rental market,” explain “The long-term financial benefits can be significant, but the first step is to closely analyze the details with your real estate agent.”

Another MLS director was equally upbeat. “The market in the Puget Sound region is showing optimistic signs of not only stabilization, but turning point towards a sustainable recovery,” said Joe Spencer, area director for Keller Williams Northwest Region. He suggested the cause is “simply the growing imbalance of supply and demand, which has resulted in the lowest inventory levels since 2006. This doesn’t mean that we’re out of the dark yet,” he acknowledged, adding, “However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see modest appreciation, especially close to job centers, in the latter half of 2012 or early 2013.”

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 22,000 real estate brokers. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 21 counties in Washington state.

Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary – March 2012

Single Family Homes + Condos	LISTINGS		PENDING SALES	CLOSED SALES
	New Listings	Total Active	# Pending Sales	# Closings	Avg. Price	Median Price
King	3,415	6,700	3,878	2,082	$379,213	$295,000
Snohomish	1,210	2,617	1,665	828	$250,191	$228,500
Pierce	1,260	3,788	1,439	803	$193,570	$175,000
Kitsap	418	1,400	404	217	$287,581	$217,500
Mason	131	628	85	58	$148,478	$151,600
Skagit	192	787	154	106	$269,702	$209,995
Grays Harbor	176	735	98	75	$99,161	$89,000
Lewis	92	611	77	45	$145,508	$118,599
Cowlitz	132	494	91	58	$131,539	$125,950
Grant	99	505	57	37	$155,017	$150,000
Thurston	409	1,299	386	219	$215,571	$212,000
San Juan	35	343	28	12	$336,958	$281,750
Island	176	746	135	71	$282,122	$220,000
Kittitas	78	397	45	26	$319,248	$194,450
Jefferson	92	453	37	27	$238,215	$222,500
Okanogan	38	316	27	20	$133,808	$122,750
Whatcom	364	1,285	280	186	$271,838	$235,000
Clark	46	252	56	38	$209,392	$183,550
Pacific	86	376	30	28	$117,175	$107,500
Ferry	7	61	5	2	$67,250	$67,250
Clallam	81	379	43	31	$297,620	$167,500
Others	173	711	106	75	$150,328	$134,900
MLS TOTAL	8,710	24,883	9,126	5,044	$268,957	$225,000

4-County Puget Sound Region Pending Sales (SFH + Condo combined)
(Totals include King, Snohomish, Pierce & Kitsap counties)

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2000	3706	4778	5903	5116	5490	5079	4928	5432	4569	4675	4126	3166
2001	4334	5056	5722	5399	5631	5568	5434	5544	4040	4387	4155	3430
2002	4293	4735	5569	5436	6131	5212	5525	6215	5394	5777	4966	4153
2003	4746	5290	6889	6837	7148	7202	7673	7135	6698	6552	4904	4454
2004	4521	6284	8073	7910	7888	8186	7583	7464	6984	6761	6228	5195
2005	5426	6833	8801	8420	8610	8896	8207	8784	7561	7157	6188	4837
2006	5275	6032	8174	7651	8411	8094	7121	7692	6216	6403	5292	4346
2007	4869	6239	7192	6974	7311	6876	6371	5580	4153	4447	3896	2975
2008	3291	4167	4520	4624	4526	4765	4580	4584	4445	3346	2841	2432
2009	3250	3407	4262	5372	5498	5963	5551	5764	5825	5702	3829	3440
2010	4381	5211	6821	7368	4058	4239	4306	4520	4350	4376	3938	3474
2011	4272	4767	6049	5732	5963	5868	5657	5944	5299	5384	4814	4197
2012	4921	6069	7386

Current Statistical Reports

Good News Real Estate Market

ousing market doing “surprisingly well” without a stimulus

KIRKLAND, WA, April 6, 2011.  Last month’s pending sales fell below year-ago totals in Western Washington, but brokers say the market is faring quite well, considering last year’s activity was boosted by federal tax credits.

The latest report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service shows 7,570 pending sales of single family homes and condominiums during March.  That’s down about 12 percent from a year ago when members reported 8,605 pending transactions (mutually accepted offers) across the 21 counties in the Northwest MLS service area.

“The market is doing surprisingly well without a stimulus,” observed Northwest MLS director OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company.  “Considering that this time last year there was a rush of buyers trying to beat the tax credit deadline, to have the number of sales off just slightly points towards a strengthening market,” he added.

A comparison to two years ago reveals a double-digit jump in pending sales.  Area-wide, the volume is up nearly 33 percent, rising from 5,701 pending sales in March 2009 to 7,570 for last month. For the four-county Puget Sound region, pending sales spiked nearly 42 percent compared to two years ago (from 4,266 to 6,049).  “The glass is starting to look more half full than half empty,” Jacobi commented.

Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, agreed. “Most real estate professionals will be happy to move past the year-over-year comparisons that have been made the first few months of 2011, as they reflect the boost given home sales by last year’s Homebuyer Tax Credit,” he noted, adding, “Home sales are now standing on their own — without the benefit of incentives — and the market is actually behaving quite typically.”

Buyers have plenty of choices, although the selection is smaller than a year ago, reflecting fewer new listings being added to inventory.  Members added 9,812 new listings to inventory last month, which compares to 12,994 additions for the same month a year ago. At month end, the Northwest MLS database included 33,444 active listings, including 28,146 single family homes and 5,298 condominiums. That’s a drop of 5,272 properties, a decline of 13.6 percent.

“In fact, some urban core neighborhoods, such as Greenlake, Queen Anne and West Bellevue, are seeing very strong demand, and a waning supply of desirable homes for sale,” Grady reported. Many buyers looking in these neighborhoods are beginning to express frustration over the lack of available homes, according to Grady.  “As a result, Realtors are beginning to report multiple offers, with contracts settling over the list price on the best homes.”

While this certainly isn’t the norm in most areas served by the NWMLS, Grady said it is encouraging that in some areas homes are selling briskly, and distressed and bank-owned properties are still in the minority.

Distressed properties continue to drag down prices.  According to research by the National Association of REALTORS®, nearly one of every four home sales (24 percent) in Washington is classified as a short sale or foreclosure.

Northwest MLS members reported 4,590 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums last month. That total represents a drop of 7.7 percent from twelve months ago when members notched 4,972 closings.

Prices on last month’s closed sales system-wide declined about 8 percent compared to a year ago. The area-wide median sales price was $242,925; a year ago it was $264,475.  In King County, prices dipped about 7 percent ($319,950 last month versus $343,950 for March 2010), although the gap was much narrower in some areas.  In the Northwest MLS map areas comprising the Eastside, prices were off about 2 percent ($435,000 versus 444,000), while in the Seattle area, the year-over-year drop was only about 1 percent ($357,500 versus $361,500).

“We saw a lot of qualified buyers making offers in March,” Windermere’s Jacobi remarked. “They’re out of the tire-kicking mode and ready to buy now. Inventory is low in general, and there is a particular shortage of move-in ready homes,” he stated, noting properties that are selling look like model homes. “Sellers realize if they remove any buyer objections ahead of time, their house will sell, and sell quickly.”

Jacobi said one of his company’s brokers wrote a cash offer for a client on a $1.1 million home in Bridle Trails the first day it was on the market. “The house was in perfect shape and newly painted. The sellers did a pre-inspection and spent several thousand dollars on minor repairs. The property got multiple offers,” he reported. The sellers accepted the cash offer for just under their asking price.

Grady senses some neighborhoods appear to be close to recovery, citing remarks by a broker who likened the market to a space capsule re-entering the atmosphere.  “While it might appear to be burning out of control, the heat is actually beneficial, providing the friction necessary to slow the descent and allow a safe landing. Perhaps our broader market appears to be smoldering now, but some neighborhoods also appear to be close to recovery. With ‘Spaceship Seattle’ currently offering fewer than two single family homes for sale for every buyer currently under contract, it could be an interesting summer around the real estate launch pad,” he suggested.

Commenting on the latest nationwide report on pending sales, Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said “We may not see notable gains in existing-home sales in the near term, but they’re expected to rise 5 to 10 percent this year with the economic recovery, job creation and excellent affordability conditions providing confidence to buyers who’ve been on the sidelines.”

Yun also emphasized the importance of looking at the broader trend, citing the unusually bad weather in the Northeast as having a negative impact on February’s data. “Month-to-month movements can be instructive, but in this uneven recovery it’s important to look at the longer term performance,” he said. “Pending home sales have trended up very nicely since bottoming out last June, even with periodic monthly declines.”

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 22,000 real estate brokers. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 21 counties in Washington state.

Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary – March 2011

Single Family Homes + Condos	LISTINGS		PENDING SALES	CLOSED SALES
	New Listings	Total Active	#Pending Sales	# Closings	Average Price	Median Price
King	3,778	10,500	3,057	1,885	$394,918	$319,950
Snohomish	1,481	4,641	1,375	785	$267,472	$237,000
Pierce	1,556	5,184	1,317	735	$221,295	$193,900
Kitsap	414	1,573	300	225	$282,825	$229,000
Mason	131	673	86	30	$180,596	$163,875
Skagit	225	1,046	146	85	$244,323	$220,000
GraysHarbor	167	838	89	61	$135,567	$121,500
Lewis	122	681	77	62	$144,142	$139,950
Cowlitz	142	597	109	59	$140,594	$128,500
Grant	127	544	71	36	$163,651	$165,000
Thurston	490	1,613	335	220	$220,915	$201,947
San Juan	56	363	11	9	$803,693	$316,000
Island	187	860	101	62	$254,815	$224,500
Kittitas	72	419	41	26	$189,946	$178,495
Jefferson	81	441	30	19	$242,063	$260,000
Okanogan	41	340	17	6	$248,250	$166,500
Whatcom	386	1,543	263	162	$259,256	$236,000
Clark	75	269	37	38	$256,642	$237,500
Pacific	66	342	26	21	$152,490	$119,000
Ferry	5	51	1	2	$148,500	$148,500
Clallam	77	400	32	25	$210,975	$195,000
Others	133	526	49	37	$173,789	$151,000
MLS TOTAL	9,812	33,444	7,570	4,590	$302,368	$242,925

4-County Puget Sound Region Pending Sales (SFH + Condo combined)
(Totals include King, Snohomish, Pierce & Kitsap counties)

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2000	3706	4778	5903	5116	5490	5079	4928	5432	4569	4675	4126	3166
2001	4334	5056	5722	5399	5631	5568	5434	5544	4040	4387	4155	3430
2002	4293	4735	5569	5436	6131	5212	5525	6215	5394	5777	4966	4153
2003	4746	5290	6889	6837	7148	7202	7673	7135	6698	6552	4904	4454
2004	4521	6284	8073	7910	7888	8186	7583	7464	6984	6761	6228	5195
2005	5426	6833	8801	8420	8610	8896	8207	8784	7561	7157	6188	4837
2006	5275	6032	8174	7651	8411	8094	7121	7692	6216	6403	5292	4346
2007	4869	6239	7192	6974	7311	6876	6371	5580	4153	4447	3896	2975
2008	3291	4167	4520	4624	4526	4765	4580	4584	4445	3346	2841	2432
2009	3250	3407	4262	5372	5498	5963	5551	5764	5825	5702	3829	3440
2010	4381	5211	6821	7368	4058	4239	4306	4520	4350	4376	3938	3474
2011	4272	4767	6049

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Kirkland Real Estate Market Statistics

KIRKLAND, WA, January 21, 2011. Members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service tallied 52,408 closed sales of single family homes and condominiums during 2010, edging out 2009 by 303 transactions for a .058 percent gain.

Last year’s transactions included 45,746 single value homes (up about 1.2 percent from 2009′s total) and 6,662 condominiums (a drop of 3.2 percent from 2009). Together, these sales were valued at more than $17.6 billion, about $600 million more than the previous year.

Despite the increase in volume, median price for all sales across the 21 counties in the Northwest MLS service area declined. Last year’s median price for closed sales of single family homes and condominiums combined was $262,000, down about 4.7 percent from the previous year when the area-wide median price was $275,000.

Prices vary widely across the counties served by Northwest MLS, ranging from a median price of $127,000 for homes that sold in Pacific County to $409,750 for closed sales in San Juan County. In King County, which accounted for nearly 40 percent of last year’s sales, the median selling price was $349,000, down just$1,000 compared to 2009).

In its annual statistical summary report for members, the multiple listing service showed brokers added 116,699 new listings of single family homes and condominiums to inventory during 2010. The number of active listings offered for sale each month averaged 39,488.

The comprehensive report provides a snapshot of both listing and sales activity, comparing months and areas.

One section compares last year’s selling price of a 3-bedroom home. For an existing home (built in 2008 or earlier), the median price was $242,000. Homes in San Juan County fetched the highest median price at $402,000, while homes that sold in Grays Harbor County were found to be the least costly ($143,400).

Condominiums also reflected a wide array of prices. For the 6,662 condominiums that sold last year the median price was just under $222,000. Prices ranged from $7,000 for a 1-bedroom condo at Copalis Beach in Grays Harbor County to nearly $7.2 million for a 2-bedroom condo in the Four Seasons Private Residences, a downtown Seattle high rise.

A total of 433 condominiums sold for a half-million dollars or more. That’s up from 2009 when brokers reported 392 high end sales.Of last year’s $500,000-plus closed sales, nearly 86 percent were located in King County. Approximately 62 percent of all condos that sold last year were in King County.

The Northwest MLS report also shows improvement on the number of high end sales of single family homes when comparing last year with 2009. During 2010, members reported 987 sales that commanded $1 million or more, an increase of about 23 percent from the previous year when there were 802 such sales. (In addition, 83 condominiums sold for $1 million or more.)

Among other highlights in the NORTHWEST MLS statistical summary:

Single family homes accounted for about 87 percent of the volume, both measured by number of units and dollars.
Of the million dollar-plus sales of single family, the highest number (147) was located in the MLS map area encompassing the western part of Bellevue, including the waterfront communities collectively known as the Gold Coast (Beaux Arts Village, Clyde Hill, Hunts Point, Medina and Yarrow Point).
A comparison of median prices of home sales within school districts in the MLS market areas shows the most expensive homes are situated in the Mercer Island School District ($834,500), followed by Bellevue ($570,000) and Bainbridge Island ($542,000). The least expensive homes, based on a comparison of school districts, were in the Lake Washington District ($3,000 for an “as is” manufactured home), the North Mason School District (for an “as is” manufactured home) and in the Aberdeen District (for an “as is” single family home).
The median sales price of $375,000 for a single family home that sold last year in King County is up almost $100,000 since 2002, a gain of nearly 35 percent.
MLS members reported 73,349 pending sales (mutually accepted offers) during 2010. That marked a decline of about 2.6 percent from 2009 when members logged 75,336 pending sales, but an increase from 2008. The 2010 total outgained 2008 by 8,477 transactions for a gain of about 13 percent.
The highest volume of pending sales took place during the first quarter of 2010, which accounted for more than 28 percent of the year’s activity. In 2009, the third quarter had the highest volume, with nearly 30 percent of the year’s total.
The pace of sales as measured by “months supply” (an estimate of how long it would take for all inventory of active listings to sell at the current pace assuming no new inventory is added) showed a system-wide total of 6.42 months, up slightly from 2009 when it was 6.25 months. In King County there was a 5.26 months supply, about the same as 2009′s figure of 5.22. (Economists consider a supply of 3-to-6 months to be a balanced market, meaning the market favors neither buyers nor sellers.)

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